Very Light Jet Magazine

Can the altitudes and airspace previously reserved for the exclusive use of our corporate jets and commercial airliners safely make space for these new planes? Can the system safely consolidate the VLJ pilots with their varying levels of experience? These questions are on our minds as aviators as we awaken to the dawn of this new day in air transport technology.

How many VLJs are on the way for us to worry about? It depends on who we ask... last year the venerable Rolls-Royce predicted that manufacturers will deliver some 8,000 VLJs by 2023. From the UK, IMDC estimates approximately 850 VLJs will be produced by 2013 however Forecast International Inc. divines 3,500 as the number of deliveries by 2014. FAA estimates are for 4,500 sharing our airspace by 2016. Some VLJ manufacturers envision up to 20,000! Pick a number.

The FAAs own recent estimate of aircraft entering the NAS is 4,500 additional aircraft over the next 10 years. FAA also predicts a 300% increase in system demand by 2025!

Some of the air traffic control equipment still in use is from the 1950s. In June of 2005, House Report 109-153 recommended over $1.5 Billion for new air traffic control facilities and equipment. This funding may be the key to gate of safety in future air travel.

The burden of additional aircraft on the system is real. The arrival of the VLJs is not the cause. They only represent a small portion of the forecast exponential growth in air traffic. Many of the VLJs will be arriving as replacements for obsolete aircraft which results in no net gain of air traffic. They are also not arriving all at once. Many of the larger orders to charter operators of the VLJs actually have staggered delivery dates. These controlled-growth factors should provide sufficient opportunity for the air traffic system to respond safely.

The safety of the NAS with the infusion of pilots with large variations in flight experience levels is another area of concern. The pilots of these innovative machines will be transitioning G/A pilots and pilot owners, or the pilots for the corporations, fractionals, and air taxi operations. This mix of pilot experience has demanded a new standard in flight training to balance the air safety equation.